EXPLOSIVE PRICE DYNAMICS IN GLOBAL REIT MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM DEVELOPED REGIONS

Laura Andreea Iancu
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Laura Andreea Iancu: Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania, the Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy.

Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), 2026, vol. 30, issue 1, 50-67

Abstract: This paper investigates the presence and timing of explosive price dynamics in major listed real estate markets over the period 04 January 2011 – 11 February 2026. The analysis focuses on four benchmark indices: the FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Europe Index, the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs Index (USA), the FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Asia Pacific Index, and the FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Index (World). Using a bubble-detection framework designed to identify periods of explosive price behaviour, the study documents episodic, momentum-driven overheating phases across regions. The results reveal that explosive episodes are concentrated during sustained appreciation regimes and tend to precede or coincide with local and global market peaks. The post-pandemic recovery of 2020–2022 emerges as the most synchronised overheating phase across regions. While the U.S. market exhibits multiple moderate explosive clusters consistent with a long-term upward trend, Europe shows a pronounced pre-correction overheating phase around 2018–2020. Asia-Pacific displays recurrent but comparatively shorter-lived explosive episodes. At the global level, explosive dynamics intensify during periods of coordinated international expansion. Overall, the findings suggest that listed real estate markets are characterised by recurrent, regionally heterogeneous yet occasionally synchronised explosive dynamics. Monitoring acceleration phases in REIT prices may therefore provide valuable early warning signals of subsequent corrections and heightened systemic risk.

Keywords: asset price bubbles; real estate securities; financial econometrics; market overheating; bubble detection; financial stability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 G12 G15 R30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vls:finstu:v:30:y:2026:i:1:p:50-67

DOI: 10.65672/fs.2026.1.3

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