Does The Yield Curve Forecast The Recession In Bulgarian Economy?

Kiril Georgiev ()
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Kiril Georgiev: Varna University of Economics

Business & Management Compass, 2012, issue 2, 110-120

Abstract: The slope of the yield curve, expressing the difference between long - term and short - term interest rates, has for more than two decades been viewed as a reliable early warning indicator of a wide range of macroeconomic variables. The article makes an attempt at analyzing the connection between the time spread of government securities in Bulgaria and the probability of subsequent recession in the light o f the probit models. The obtained results give us reason to define the relation under study as „the reliably functioning aspect” of the „multi - layer” information content of the yield curve in Bulgaria.

Date: 2012
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