Research Of Functional Changes In Foreign Exchange Rate EUR/UAH Under Conditions Of Economic Transformation In Ukraine

Oliinyk Oksana (), Ksendzuk Valentyna (), Sergiienko Larysa () and Lehan Iryna ()
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Lehan Iryna: State University “Zhytomyr Polytechnic”, Zhytomyr, Department of Economic Safety, Public Management and AdministrationUkraine

Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, 2020, vol. 48, issue 48, 141-154

Abstract: The article substantiates the need to carry out a research of the factors affecting the change in the exchange rate of EUR/UAH due to the fact that the devaluation of the Ukrainian hryvnia in the last few years destabilizes the economic environment of entrepreneurship development. Thus, this work analyzes the determinants of the exchange rate in Ukraine, and the investigated correlation between the dependence of the EUR / UAH exchange rate on a set of factors confirmed the tight correlation between the change in money supply and government debt and the rise / fall in the EUR / UAH national currency. Instead, other factors (GDP, budget deficit, export operations, the positive balance of payments, inflation, public debt) have statistically insignificant correlation to the studied indicator and are not included in the regression model. It is suggested to harmonize monetary policy that has the greatest influence on the formation of the exchange rate, as well as to analyze the connection this policy with the foreign trade policy of the country, which will enable to stabilize the exchange rate as well as to ensure the formation of suitable conditions for the economic development of foreign economic entities.

Keywords: foreign currency exchange rate; currency risk; EUR/UAH; GDP; inflation; foreign trade; external debt; Ukraine; regression analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:buogeo:v:48:y:2020:i:48:p:141-154:n:9

DOI: 10.2478/bog-2020-0018

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