The EU's Socio-economic Development Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine
Boichenko Kateryna (),
Rana Umair Ashraf,
Nuno Mata Mário and
Cristian Gherghina Ștefan
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Boichenko Kateryna: Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman: 54/1 Prospect Peremogy, 03057 Kyiv, Ukraine
Nuno Mata Mário: ISCAL-Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração de Lisboa, Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa: 20 Avenida Miguel Bombarda, 1069-035 Lisbon, Portugal; Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL), Instituto Universitário de Lisboa (ISCTEIUL): 9 Rua de Entrecampos, 1649-026 Lisboa, Portugal
Cristian Gherghina Ștefan: Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 6 Romana Square, 010374 Bucharest, Romania
Central European Economic Journal, 2023, vol. 10, issue 57, 72-89
Abstract:
The war in Ukraine affects the European Union (EU) member states asymmetrically. The purpose of the study is to determine changes in the development of the EU countries in three key directions: ‘economy and environment’, ‘business and trade’, and ‘people and work’; to identify clusters of countries with similar transformations; and to model the impact of the studied indicators on the level of public debt amid the war in Ukraine. The research methodology includes the definition of a complex indicator of changes in the socio-economic development of EU countries, correlation and cluster analysis, and modelling the influence of the studied factors/indicators on the level of public debt. Research of changes in the context of the proposed complex indicators and their components under conditions of war showed that the changes in the areas under review varied for EU countries. Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, 17 EU countries faced a slowdown in their socio-economic growth, among which Poland was the most severely affected. Modelling made it possible to determine that, amid the war, the most important factors for the EU public debt are inflation, labour market conditions, and the possibilities of the balance of payments and the international investment position incorporated into GDP. The conducted research proves that the war in Ukraine increases the scale and relevance of general challenges that cannot be addressed at the national level. Strengthening the European defence against external aggression is the entire task of the EU.
Keywords: development; public debt; inflation; clustering; war (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O11 O52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:ceuecj:v:10:y:2023:i:57:p:72-89:n:2
DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2023-0005
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