Selected Econometric Methods of Modelling the World’s Population

Rzymowski Witold () and Surowiec Agnieszka ()
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Rzymowski Witold: Lublin University of Technology, Lublin, Poland
Surowiec Agnieszka: Lublin University of Technology, Lublin, Poland

Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, 2018, vol. 22, issue 2, 34-44

Abstract: Selected econometric methods of modelling the world’s population size based on historical data are presented in the paper. Periodical variables were used in the models proposed in the paper. Moreover, a logistic-type function was used in modelling. The purpose of the paper was to obtain a model describing the world’s population with the lowest possible maximal relative error and possibly the longest period of durability. In this work, 13,244 models from three families models were analyzed. Only a small part of such a large number of models satisfies the conditions of stability. The method of modelling the world’s population size allows to obtain models with maximal relative errors not exceeding 0.5%. Selected models were used to prediction of the world’s population up to 2050. The obtained results were compared with data published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Keywords: nonlinear models; estimation; maximal relative error; population; forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:eaiada:v:22:y:2018:i:2:p:34-44:n:3

DOI: 10.15611/eada.2018.2.03

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