Macroeconomic Factors in Modelling the SMEs Bankruptcy Risk. The Case of the Polish Market

Ptak-Chmielewska Aneta () and Matuszyk Anna ()
Additional contact information
Ptak-Chmielewska Aneta: SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland
Matuszyk Anna: SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland

Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, 2019, vol. 23, issue 3, 40-49

Abstract: The last financial crisis affected the SMEs sector in different countries at different levels and strength. SMEs represent the backbone of the economy of every country. Therefore, they need bankruptcy prediction models easily adaptable to their characteristics. In our analysis we verified hypothesis: including information about macroeconomic conditions significantly increases the effectiveness of the bankruptcy model. The data set used in our research contained information about 1,138 SMEs. All information was taken from the financial statements covering the period 2002-2010. The sample included enterprises from sectors: industry, trade and services. Selected financial ratios were used to build the model and the macroeconomic variables were added: GDP, inflation, and the unemployment rate. Logistic regression as the research method was applied. In our study we showed that the incorporation of the macro variables improved the prediction of the SMEs bankruptcy risk.

Keywords: bankruptcy risk model; logistic regression; macro variables (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 C5 G17 R15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.15611/eada.2019.3.04 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:eaiada:v:23:y:2019:i:3:p:40-49:n:4

DOI: 10.15611/eada.2019.3.04

Access Statistics for this article

Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis is currently edited by Józef Dziechciarz

More articles in Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis from Sciendo
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Peter Golla ().