Energy mix and its implications on the Vietnamese economy by 2030: A CGE analysis using GTAP-E-Power

Nguyen Duy Chinh () and Ko Jong-Hwan ()
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Nguyen Duy Chinh: Department of International and Area Studies, Pukyong National University, South Korea
Ko Jong-Hwan: Department of Global and Area Studies, Pukyong National University, South Korea

Economics and Business Review, 2025, vol. 11, issue 1, 31-54

Abstract: This study uses the GTAP-E-Power model to examine the economic and environmental implications of transitioning to different energy generation mixes in Vietnam by 2030. Three scenarios were considered for that year: (1) low-coal and high-gas, (2) low-coal and high-renewables, and (3) high-coal. Scenario 2 emerges as the most balanced approach, resulting in a 1.02% GDP decline and a 0.78% increase in CO2 emissions. In this scenario, the electronics sector grows slightly (+0.3%), while metals (–3.1%) and chemical products (–1.0%) experience moderate declines. In terms of exports, Scenario 2 gives rise to an increase in the trade balance (151 million USD) and a modest gain in exports to China (+0.46%), Japan (+0.37%), Korea (+0.33%), and Western Europe (+0.35%). Across all three scenarios, the output of the electronics industry shows sensitivity to energy mix changes, while the coal mining sector seems to be resilient to changing the energy mix.

Keywords: GTAP-E-Power; CGE; Vietnam; energy mix; renewable energy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 O13 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:ecobur:v:11:y:2025:i:1:p:31-54:n:1005

DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2025.1.1896

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