Russian aggression against Ukraine and the changes in European Union countries’ macroeconomic situation: Do energy intensity and energy dependence matter?

Wielechowski Michał () and Czech Katarzyna ()
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Wielechowski Michał: Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Institute of Economics and Finance, Department of Econometrics and Statistics, Nowoursynowska 166, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland
Czech Katarzyna: Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Institute of Economics and Finance, Department of Econometrics and Statistics, Nowoursynowska 166, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland

Economics and Business Review, 2023, vol. 9, issue 4, 74-95

Abstract: The study aims to assess whether there are significant differences among EU member states regarding the Russo-Ukrainian-conflict-driven changes in macroeconomic indicators and whether these differences are linked to the country’s energy vulnerability. Applying k-means clustering, three country groups are distinguished, similar with regard to their energy intensity, energy dependence (including dependence on Russian gas), and household budgets’ exposure to energy prices. Based on the Kruskal-Wallis and Wilcoxon pairwise comparison tests, the study reveals statistically significant differences among the distinguished country clusters in the level of inflation and interest rates at the time of this conflict as well as differences in the 2022 forecasts’ changes for GDP, inflation, budget balance and unemployment. The results indicate that EU economies characterised by the most significant energy vulnerability economically suffer the most in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Keywords: energy intensity; energy dependence; natural gas; Russian aggression against Ukraine; European Union member states; macroeconomic indicators; clustering (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E01 E24 E31 E43 H62 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:ecobur:v:9:y:2023:i:4:p:74-95:n:3

DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2023.4.1073

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