I Will … Sooner or Later. Predicting Whether and When Consumers Intend to Adopt New Technologies

Koert van Ittersum () and Feinberg Fred M. ()
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Koert van Ittersum: Scheller College of Business, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA
Feinberg Fred M.: Stephen M. Ross School of Business, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA

NIM Marketing Intelligence Review, 2012, vol. 4, issue 2, 24-28

Abstract: Two of the most critical uncertainties associated with new technology introductions are whether and when the target market will adopt them. A new scale integrates cumulative time intervals and predicts adoption more accurately. Behavioral data collected during a two-year longitudinal study provides empirical evidence for its accuracy. The new measure outperformed two single-intent measures and achieved a hit rate of more than 80 % in predicting whether and when a cell-phone technology was adopted. Adoption likelihood can be estimated without actual sales data and thus be determined prior to the launch of a new product

Keywords: Forecasting Methods; Technology Adoption; (Re-)Purchase Intentions; Innovation Management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:gfkmir:v:4:y:2012:i:2:p:24-28:n:4

DOI: 10.2478/gfkmir-2014-0031

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