Minimalizacja ryzyka wdrażania nowych technologii w przemyśle koksowniczym przez etapową realizację złożonego projektu badawczo-rozwojowego jako opcji rzeczowej

Żarczyński Piotr (), Strugała Andrzej, Sobolewski Aleksander and Sikorski Czesław

Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi / Mineral Resources Management, 2012, vol. 28, issue 3, 155-171

Abstract: The economic downturn in Europe and in the world, has affected the traditional branches of industry in a particular way. Development plans of domestic coke plants in terms of main production assets for the next years have been presented. Taking into account the current market situation, the coke plants strategy should aim at risk minimization through application of already known technologies. On the other hand, investments in scope of new and innovative technologies which are connected with a high level of variability, should be seen as an opportunity. Thus, evaluation of investment projects should be done in a different way than so far. The traditional discount analysis, because of its static nature, does not take into account variability and options included in projects with many decision moments - it can prove to be not sufficient. A tool which helps the decision makers in such situations, is the real options analysis. The article presents the findings of the research-development project on coal blend pre-drying implementation, realized by Zdzieszowice Coke Plant and ICHPW in Zabrze. The results achieved so far, as well as the concerns resulting from the project, have been discussed in this article. Further project development plans, aiming at the construction of a semi industrial research installation for analysing the impact of pre-drying on the coke making process have been presented. The article describes premises for the application of real options analysis as a tool to evaluate projects, the results of which are uncertain. The origin and structure of real options as well as the conditions of their application compared to traditional, discount based project evaluation methods, have been presented. The origin and characteristic parameters of real options have been discussed. In the next part, by applying the NPV and real options method, the research-development undertaking of coal blend pre-drying implementation on two coke batteries, has been evaluated. In order to assess the real option’s value of the project, which is a classic European call option, the Black-Scholes formula has been used. The achieved results have been compared as well as the flexibility rate of the analyzed research-development project has been defined.

Keywords: Coke industry; real options; strategic management; strategic investment decisions; limited resources optimal allocation; R&D project; technological development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:gosmin:v:28:y:2012:i:3:p:155-171:n:10

DOI: 10.2478/v10269-012-0027-x

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