The reliability of long – term energy forecasts

Boryczko Bożena (), Kolenda Zygmunt and Nowak Wojciech
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Boryczko Bożena: Ph.D. Eng., AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Non-Ferrous Metals, Department of Metal Working and Physical Metallurgy of Non-Ferrous Metals, Krakow, Poland
Kolenda Zygmunt: Professor, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Energy and Fuels, Department of Fundamental Research in Energy Engineering, Krakow, Poland.
Nowak Wojciech: Professor, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Energy and Fuels, Department of Thermal and Fluid Flow Machines, Krakow, Poland.

Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi / Mineral Resources Management, 2015, vol. 31, issue 4, 111-138

Abstract: The paper demonstrates that the possibilities of producing reliable long-term energy forecast are limited. Global economic growth is so dynamic that the changes resulting from scientific and technological progress, which we experience, do not allow for the identification of goals over longer time intervals. For this reason, forecasting up to 2035, 2040, 2060 is devoid of its fundamental value, which is the reliability of results obtained. Are predictions to be conservative (this applies to richer countries) or are they to produce a paradigm shift by, for example, strongly imposing the requirement of increasing energy security, which is important for our country? In light of the broadness of the issues, this paper is limited to considerations relating to forecasting the primary energy demand. Detailed examples are presented for the Polish energy system.

Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:gosmin:v:31:y:2015:i:4:p:111-138:n:4

DOI: 10.1515/gospo-2015-0036

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