Crude oil, natural gas, and economic growth: impact and causality analysis in Caspian Sea region

Jahangir S M Rashed and Dural Betul Yuce ()
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Jahangir S M Rashed: Anadolu Universitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler FakultesiEskisehir, Turkey
Dural Betul Yuce: Anadolu Universitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi Yunusemre CampusEskisehir26470, Turkey

International Journal of Management and Economics, 2018, vol. 54, issue 3, 169-184

Abstract: The main objective of this study was to investigate the impact and causality of crude oil and natural gas on economic growth in the Caspian Sea region. Here, the study applies ordinary least square (OLS) method and Granger causality test using time series data from 1997 to 2015 to ascertain the impact and causality of crude oil and natural gas on economic growth. The results, according to the OLS method, evince that crude oil and natural gas have a significant impact on economic growth of the region. Alongside, considering causality test, gross domestic product (GDP) does Granger cause (unidirectional) crude oil price and export which denotes that GDP can help to forecast crude oil price and export; however, crude oil price and export cannot help to forecast GDP. Surprisingly, this direction is unlikely for GDP and natural gas. GDP and natural gas have unidirectional, but opposite causal relationship, i.e., natural gas price and export do Granger cause GDP which signify that natural gas price and export can help to forecast GDP; however, GDP cannot help to forecast crude oil price and export.

Keywords: Caspian Sea Region; European Union; Crude Oil; Natural Gas; Economic Growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:ijomae:v:54:y:2018:i:3:p:169-184:n:4

DOI: 10.2478/ijme-2018-0019

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