Rainfall and self-selection patterns in Mexico-US migration

Li Shan ()
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Li Shan: School of Business, Macau University of Science and Technology, Avenida Wai Long, Taipa, Macau, China

IZA Journal of Development and Migration, 2020, vol. 11, issue 1, 32

Abstract: This article studies the role of rainfall in determining the education composition of Mexico-US migration. Emphasizing the relationship between rainfall and migration costs, a revised Roy model indicates that rainfall affects selection on education through not only households’ liquidity constraints but also the comparisons between changes in migration costs and wage differentials at different levels of education. With retrospective data on the migration history of male Mexicans, the empirical analysis shows that the inverted U-shaped relationship between migration probabilities and education is less dispersed with a higher vertex when rainfall decreases, suggesting higher migration costs and reinforced self-selection patterns. The impacts of rainfall on selection and education are stronger for the migrant stock than for migration flows. Studying how rainfall influences migrants’ return decisions provides consistent results.

Keywords: rainfall; migration selection; migration costs; schooling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J24 J61 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:izajdm:v:11:y:2020:i:1:p:32:n:7

DOI: 10.2478/izajodm-2020-0022

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