Forecasts of Performance Indicators in the Health System Using the Arima Method

Mirescu Lucian and Popescu Liviu ()
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Mirescu Lucian: University of Craiova, Doctoral School of Economic Sciences, Romania
Popescu Liviu: University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Romania

Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, 2024, vol. 13, issue 1, 22

Abstract: This paper presents quarterly forecasts on several performance indicators from the Romanian health system, from a county emergency hospital. Using data from the period 2010-2022, forecasts are made for the period 2023-2025 of the average duration of hospitalization, the rate of bed utilization, the index of complexity of cases, the number of cases and the average cost of hospitalization. The method used is that of the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) applied to time series. The Dickey-Fuller test is used to check the stationarity of the time series, as well as other tests for the validation of prediction models.

Keywords: health system; forecast; ARIMA method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C02 C13 C53 I12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:jsesro:v:13:y:2024:i:1:p:22:n:1001

DOI: 10.2478/jses-2024-0005

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