Verification of forecasts of periodic changes in the climate of Warsaw in the period 1779-2010

Boryczka Jerzy (), Stopa-Boryczka Maria, Kossowska-Cezak Urszula and Wawer Jolanta ()
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Boryczka Jerzy: Institute of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Warsaw
Stopa-Boryczka Maria: Institute of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Warsaw
Kossowska-Cezak Urszula: Institute of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Warsaw
Wawer Jolanta: Institute of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Warsaw

Miscellanea Geographica. Regional Studies on Development, 2012, vol. 16, issue 2, 16-22

Abstract: The air temperatures recorded at Warsaw-Okęcie in 1951-2010 were compared with forecasts for the period 1980-2010 and 1991-2010, i.e. 31 and 20 years ahead. Accurate predictions of air temperatures in Warsaw in 1980-2010 were calculated using the cycles identified by applying the sinusoidal regression method to a series of monitoring results obtained in Warsaw between 1779 and 1979. The high accuracy of these forecasts is the result of a similar progression of measured and forecast values over a number of years. The prediction of climate change in the Northern Hemisphere for example, caused by interference of long solar radiation cycles as well as variations in the concentrations of the δ18O oxygen isotope in the Arctic ice cores, requires a larger series of data points.

Keywords: Air temperature; Wolf numbers; period; interference; forecast; tree ring; Air temperature; Wolf numbers; period; interference; forecast; tree ring (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:mgrsod:v:16:y:2012:i:2:p:16-22:n:2

DOI: 10.2478/v10288-012-0025-2

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