Utilising Expert Opinion to Improve the Measurement of International Migration in Europe

Wiśniowski Arkadiusz (), Bijak Jakub (), Christiansen Solveig (), Forster Jonathan J. (), Keilman Nico (), Raymer James () and Smith Peter W.F. ()
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Wiśniowski Arkadiusz: Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
Bijak Jakub: Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
Christiansen Solveig: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway
Forster Jonathan J.: Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
Keilman Nico: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway
Raymer James: Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
Smith Peter W.F.: Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK

Journal of Official Statistics, 2013, vol. 29, issue 4, 583-607

Abstract: In this article, we first discuss the need to augment reported flows of international migration in Europe with additional knowledge gained from experts on measurement, quality and coverage. Second, we present our method for eliciting this information. Third, we describe how this information is converted into prior distributions for subsequent use in a Bayesian model for estimating migration flows amongst countries in the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA). The article concludes with an assessment of the importance of expert information and a discussion of lessons learned from the elicitation process.

Keywords: Bayesian modelling; elicitation; expert knowledge; migration statistics; Delphi Survey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:offsta:v:29:y:2013:i:4:p:583-607:n:6

DOI: 10.2478/jos-2013-0041

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