Understanding the Structural Complexity of Induced Travel Demand in Decision-Making: A System Dynamics Approach

Angarita-Zapata Juan S. (), Parra-Valencia Jorge A. and Andrade-Sosa Hugo H.
Additional contact information
Angarita-Zapata Juan S.: School of Systems Engineering and Informatics, Universidad Industrial de Santander, SIMON Research Group, Colombia
Parra-Valencia Jorge A.: School of Systems Engineering, Universidad Autónoma de Bucaramanga, Systems Thinking Research Group, Colombia
Andrade-Sosa Hugo H.: School of Systems Engineering and Informatics, Universidad Industrial de Santander, SIMON Research Group, Colombia

Organizacija, 2016, vol. 49, issue 3, 129-143

Abstract: Background and purpose: Induced travel demand (ITD) is a phenomenon where road construction increases vehicles’ kilometers traveled. It has been approached with econometric models that use elasticities as measure to estimate how much travel demand can be induced by new roads. However, there is a lack of “white-box” models with causal hypotheses that explain the structural complexity underlying this phenomenon. We propose a system dynamics model based on a feedback mechanism to explain structurally ITD. Methodology: A system dynamics methodology was selected to model and simulate ITD. First, a causal loop diagram is proposed to describe the ITD structure in terms of feedback loops. Then a stock-flows diagram is formulated to allow computer simulation. Finally, simulations are run to show the quantitative temporal evolution of the model built. Results: The simulation results show how new roads in the short term induce more kilometers traveled by vehicles already in use; meanwhile, in the medium-term, new traffic is generated. These new car drivers appear when better flow conditions coming from new roads increase attractiveness of car use. More cars added to vehicles already in use produce new traffic congestion, and high travel speeds provided by roads built are absorbed by ITD effects. Conclusion: We concluded that approaching ITD with a systemic perspective allows for identifying leverage points that contribute to design comprehensive policies aimed to cope with ITD. In this sense, the model supports decision- making processes in urban contexts wherein it is still necessary for road construction to guarantee connectivity, such as the case of developing countries.

Keywords: induced travel demand; system dynamics; decision-making; dynamic modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1515/orga-2016-0013 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:organi:v:49:y:2016:i:3:p:129-143:n:1

DOI: 10.1515/orga-2016-0013

Access Statistics for this article

Organizacija is currently edited by Jože Zupančič

More articles in Organizacija from Sciendo
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Peter Golla ().