Measuring the Natural Interest Rate for the Macedonian Economy: A Multi-Model Approach

Miteski Mite (), Petrovska Magdalena () and Sulejmani Artan ()
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Miteski Mite: Senior Advisor Analyst, Monetary Policy and Research Department National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia Republic of North Macedonia
Petrovska Magdalena: Senior Advisor, Monetary Policy and Research Department National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia Blvd Kuzman Josifovski Pitu 1 1000 Skopje Republic of North Macedonia
Sulejmani Artan: Analyst, Monetary Policy and Research Department National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia Republic of North Macedonia

South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 2023, vol. 18, issue 1, 176-193

Abstract: This paper identifies the natural interest rate for the Macedonian economy using quarterly data for 2001Q4-2019Q3. To this end, the estimation is made by using different types of models, such as the Holston, Laubach, and Williams model and the full-fledged country-specific structural MAKPAM model. The empirical results show that the natural rate of interest in the Macedonian economy has declined over time, which is similar to the findings for other countries. The decomposition of the natural rate suggests that the main driver for the decline is the slowdown of the Macedonian potential GDP growth in the period after the global economic crisis, although there are signs of its recovery at the end of the sample period. In addition, the results indicate that the monetary policy conditions in the Macedonian economy have been broadly accommodative from 2011Q4 onwards. The substantive conclusions are unchanged across the multiple models used in this study.

Keywords: Natural interest rate; interest rate gap; Holston; Laubach; and Williams model; MAKPAM Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E43 E52 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:seejeb:v:18:y:2023:i:1:p:176-193:n:5

DOI: 10.2478/jeb-2023-0012

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