Post-Crisis Potential Output in the Western Balkans

Čaršimamović Vukotić Naida (), Jankulov Suljagić Irena () and Smirnov Irina ()
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Čaršimamović Vukotić Naida: Budget Expert World Bank Public Expenditure Management Peer Assisted Learning Network
Jankulov Suljagić Irena: Senior Economist International Monetary Fund Resident Representative Office to BiH
Smirnov Irina: Economic Adviser, European Union Delegation to BiH

South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 2013, vol. 8, issue 1, 23-33

Abstract: Spurred by the recent global economic crisis, there has been a resurgence of research on output gaps. As the crisis caused a decline in potential GDP due to a strong contraction in demand, it is expected that the recovery of potential output will be especially difficult in demand-driven small open economies, such as the Western Balkan countries, where recovery will strongly depend on global international trade recovery. The purpose of this research is to calculate and compare pre and post-crisis potential GDPs and GDP gaps for the Western Balkan countries. The symmetric filter method developed by Hodrick and Prescott is used to de-trend GDP time series data by decomposing it into growth and cyclical components. The results point to a strong decrease in potential output growth compared to the pre-crisis potential output growth of the Western Balkans.

Keywords: Potential output; Output gap; Crisis; Western Balkans; HP filter (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:seejeb:v:8:y:2013:i:1:p:11:n:2

DOI: 10.2478/jeb-2013-0002

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