Option for Predicting the Czech Republic’S Foreign Trade Time Series as Components in Gross Domestic Product

Marek Luboš (), Hronová Stanislava () and Hindis Richard ()
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Marek Luboš: Department of Statistics and Probability, University of Economics, Prague, Czech
Hronová Stanislava: Department of Economic Statistics, University of Economics, Prague, Czech
Hindis Richard: Department of Statistics and Probability, University of Economics, Prague, Czech

Statistics in Transition New Series, 2017, vol. 18, issue 3, 481-500

Abstract: This paper analyses the time series observed for the foreign trade of the Czech Republic (CR) and predictions in such series with the aid of the SARIMA and transfer-function models. Our goal is to find models suitable for describing the time series of the exports and imports of goods and services from/to the CR and to subsequently use these models for predictions in quarterly estimates of the gross domestic product (GDP) component resources and utilization. As a result we get suitable models with a time lag, and predictions in the time series of the CR exports and imports several months ahead.

Keywords: transfer-function models; SARIMA models; quarterly estimates of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP); imports and exports of goods and services; exchange rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:stintr:v:18:y:2017:i:3:p:481-500:n:4

DOI: 10.21307/stattrans-2016-082

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