Towards a target employment rate within age and gender groups

Jaworski Stanisław () and Zielińska-Kolasińska Zofia ()
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Jaworski Stanisław: Department of Econometrics and Statistics, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Warsaw, ; Poland
Zielińska-Kolasińska Zofia: Department of Mathematics, Siedlce University of Natural Sciences and Humanities, Warsaw, ; Poland

Statistics in Transition New Series, 2021, vol. 22, issue 4, 213-225

Abstract: Quarterly employment rates in European countries are analysed in terms of the likelihood of achieving a specific employment rate within age and gender groups in a five-year horizon. The German employment rate serves as a benchmark for this research. The likelihood is estimated by a Monte-Carlo simulation based on the class of exponential smoothing models. The research presents a pessimistic prognosis of employment rates in European countries with respect to young and partly to older workers.

Keywords: employment rate; exponential smoothing; forecasting; state space approach. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:stintr:v:22:y:2021:i:4:p:213-225:n:13

DOI: 10.21307/stattrans-2021-046

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