Predicting Financial Crises and Signal Indicators in G7 Countries

Alpdoğan Hilal (), Akal Mustafa, Ali Kabasakal and Görmüş Şakir
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Alpdoğan Hilal: Sakarya University of Applied Science, Sakarya, Turkey.
Akal Mustafa: Sakarya University, Sakarya, Turkey.
Görmüş Şakir: Marmara University, İstanbul, Turkey.

Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, 2023, vol. 26, issue 1, 29-53

Abstract: This study aims to detect financial crises and their signal indicators in G7 countries from 1990 to 2016. For this purpose, fourteen leading economic indicators supported by the economic literature were examined for signaling and the 24-month crisis window before the beginning of a crisis. Among them, successful crisis estimators were determined by the noise signal ratio. The identified crisis estimators provide essential information about the dynamics of economies and the channels of the crisis affecting them. Our findings may help policymakers determine adverse policies against crisis, avoid significant losses, and stabilize the world economy and national economies.

Keywords: Financial Crises; Signal Approach; KLR Approach; G7 Countries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G01 G17 O57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:zirebs:v:26:y:2023:i:1:p:29-53:n:1002

DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2023-0002

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