Analysis of the Determinants of Bolivia's Economic Growth Models

César Daniel Vargas Díaz, Hernán Delgadillo Dorado and Emerson Rojas Ovando

World Economics, 2025, vol. 26, issue 4, 179-206

Abstract: The modern history of Bolivia can be understood through the last two economic models of development implemented in the country; first, ‘neoliberalism' characterised by an economic policy with its economic model of the capitalist market focused on the private sector, to a more plural and social orientation with its economic, social, and community-based productive model, centred on ‘neo-statism'. Both economic models with different essences and paradigms, but with the same nuances in sustaining the economy with the sale of raw materials, savings and debt. In this context, the objective of this research is to identify, analyse, and compare the economic models derived from its structural and macroeconomic public policies carried out in the Bolivian economy through independent study variables such as inflation, fiscal and trade balance, public debt, public expenditure and gross domestic product (GDP), the latter being our dependent variable, for the study analysis each of these variables was considered that are disseminated in the General State Budgets using a time series sample spanning from 1986 to 2025. To analyse these data, we will first make the polynomial projections of each of the study variables individually as well as for the entire sample. This approach aims to identify cyclical patterns or complex curves with increasing and decreasing trends, enabling us to compare which of the economic models is more accurate. Subsequently, we developed multiple regressions to both models, the results obtained for the capitalist economic model yielded a multiple correlation coefficient of 96% and for the socialist economic model of 84%.

Date: 2025
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