Pronounced Cyclical Downturn, Recovery not Before Mid-2002. Economic Outlook for 2002 and 2003

Markus Marterbauer

WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), 2002, vol. 75, issue 1, 15-17

Abstract: GDP in Austria expanded by no more than 1.1 percent in volume in 2001. The weakness in overall demand is set to continue until Spring 2002 at least. By that time, a marked upturn in activity may set in, driven by a business cycle recovery in the USA and supported by low oil prices. On these assumptions, the Austrian economy may grow by 1.2 percent in 2002 and by 2.8 percent in the following year. The current sharp cyclical slowdown is putting strain on the labour market and on government budgets. Employment is expected to recede in 2002, making for a jump in the jobless rate to an average 6.6 percent. With automatic stabilisers operating, the general government balance in 2002 is projected at a deficit of around € 0.8 billion or 0.4 percent of GDP. Inflation is expected to decelerate significantly.

Keywords: Pronounced Cyclical Downturn; Recovery not Before Mid-2002. Economic Outlook for 2002 and 2003 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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