Delayed Recovery in Case of Renewed Lockdown. Economic Outlook for 2021 and 2022

Stefan Ederer

WIFO Reports on Austria, 2021, issue 5

Abstract: Economic activity is currently heavily dependent on the measures taken to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. To frame the range of future economic development, this forecast outlines two scenarios: in the opening scenario, the restrictions are completely lifted in the course of spring. The lockdown scenario, on the other hand, assumes a renewed closure of retail and personal services in April 2021. In the first scenario, economic activity picks up already in spring, with GDP expected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2021 and 4.3 percent in 2022. In the lockdown scenario, the recovery is delayed, with growth of 1.5 percent in 2021 and 4.7 percent in 2022. Private consumption and travel are still weaker in 2022 than before the COVID-19 pandemic. In the labour market, the crisis will remain visible for some time.

Keywords: Business cycle; economic outlook; forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wfo:repoau:y:2021:i:5

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