Economic Growth Remains Subdued, with High Unemployment Persisting. Medium-term Projection for the Austrian Economy until 2019

Josef Baumgartner, Serguei Kaniovski and Hans Pitlik

WIFO Bulletin, 2015, vol. 20, issue 12, 130-144

Abstract: After a cyclical downturn in 2014, the Austrian economy is set to grow at a moderate pace of 1.3 percent p.a. over the period from 2015 to 2019. Private consumption and investment will grow slowly, while the external contribution to GDP growth will remain modest. The gradual expansion of output will allow employment to rise by an average 0.8 percent p.a., which however will not prevent unemployment from rising further as growth of labour supply, both domestic and foreign, will outpace the creation of new jobs. The jobless rate (national definition) is expected to peak at 9.4 percent in 2018, before edging down by the forecast horizon. Inflationary pressure is expected to stay subdued over the medium term, with headline inflation averaging 1.6 percent. Given the expected cyclical profile and the underlying assumptions on the policy framework, a balanced general government budget (in structural as well as in nominal terms) will not be reached within the forecast period.

Keywords: Medium-term Forecast; Public Finance; Austria (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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