Confidence in the USA, Uncertainty in the Euro Area, Fragility in the Emerging Markets. Medium-term Forecast for the World Economy until 2020

Stefan Schiman

WIFO Bulletin, 2015, vol. 20, issue 19, 214-221

Abstract: After the cyclical reversal in 2015, the Chinese economy will grow at a slower pace also in the years to come. This keeps commodity prices down over the medium term and complicates recovery in Russia and Brazil where forward-looking investment had been neglected while raw material prices were booming. Sluggish investment is also compromising growth opportunities in the euro area. The lack of policy co-ordination heightens economic uncertainty, and priority given to respective national policy goals reinforces divergence of developments. Better are growth perspectives in the USA, where the financial market crisis and the recession and its consequences were overcome by a skilful mix of monetary and fiscal policy, and where the momentum of demand and output is driven by a growing labour force.

Keywords: Medium-term forecast; world economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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