Subdued Recovery After Strong Rebound. Economic Outlook for 2020 and 2021

Stefan Schiman

WIFO Bulletin, 2020, vol. 25, issue 10, 87-100

Abstract: In spring, the global economy suffered a massive slump due to the pandemic-related protective measures. The loss in value added was partially made up in the summer; in Austria, value added in the third quarter is likely to have grown by more than 10 percent compared with the previous quarter. About half of the crisis-related rise in unemployment was reduced by September. In the fourth quarter, however, economic momentum will slow down markedly as a result of expiring rebound effects (the unwinding of the consumption backlog) and an increase in the number of infections. For 2020, GDP is forecast to fall by 6.8 percent overall compared with 2019, and rise by 4.4 percent in 2021. A new lockdown in autumn could reduce these rates by 2.5 and 4.0 percentage points respectively.

Keywords: Business Cycle; Economic Outlook; Forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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