Evaluation of Macro-economic Forecasts for Austria in the 1980s and 1990s

Josef Baumgartner

Austrian Economic Quarterly, 2002, vol. 7, issue 4, 191-206

Abstract: This paper presents an evaluation of the forecasts of WIFO, the Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) and the OECD for the Austrian economy for three key macro-economic variables for the period 1983-1999. As to the projections of growth and inflation in terms of accuracy no significant differences have emerged between the three institutions, while the prospects for unemployment are more precisely assessed by the two domestic institutes. Compared with previous studies, forecasting errors exhibit a slight downward trend. The forecasts by WIFO, IHS and the OECD are largely unbiased and efficient, and – with the exception of the unemployment rate forecast by the OECD – clearly superior to "naïve" forecasting strategies.

Keywords: Evaluation; of; Macro-economic; Forecasts; for; Austria; in; the; 1980s; and; 1990s (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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