Oil production: A probabilistic model of the Hubbert curve

Bertrand Michel

Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 2011, vol. 27, issue 4, 434-449

Abstract: The specific distribution of hydrocarbon field sizes has a deep impact on the dynamics of the production inside a basin. This paper proposes a probabilistic model based on the field size distribution, taking into account the launching production process of the fields. This model can be seen as a ‘bottom‐up’ probabilistic method to simulate and predict oil production. The asymptotic results obtained allow us to propose relevant fitting to real production curves. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2011
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:apsmbi:v:27:y:2011:i:4:p:434-449

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