How Will They Vote? Predicting the Future Behavior of Supreme Court Nominees, 1937–2006

Charles M. Cameron and Jee‐Kwang Park

Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, 2009, vol. 6, issue 3, 485-511

Abstract: Previous research suggests that the future behavior of nominees to the U.S. Supreme Court is relatively unpredictable, except for civil liberties cases. We devise a new measure of nominees' political ideology that more efficiently uses preconfirmation information about the nominees. The measure employs Segal‐Cover scores (based on content analysis of contemporary newspaper editorials) as well as DW‐NOMINATE indicators, and is scaled into the DW‐NOMINATE space. The measure predicts confirmed nominees' overall immediate, short‐term, and longer‐term voting behavior, as well as voting in issue‐specific domains, much better than do previous measures. It is particularly successful for nominees confirmed after 1957.

Date: 2009
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1740-1461.2009.01151.x

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:empleg:v:6:y:2009:i:3:p:485-511

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