Increases in the extreme rainfall events: Using the Weibull distribution

Sazcha Olivera and Christopher Heard

Environmetrics, 2019, vol. 30, issue 4

Abstract: The frequency of extreme weather events, such as severe floods, storms, hurricanes, and droughts, seems to have increased in recent years. The analysis of trends and other changes in the distribution of these phenomena uses the extreme value theory. This study proposes the use of the Weibull distribution for the evaluation of extreme events in precipitation. A correct assessment of probabilities of extreme precipitation events and their changes is important for stakeholders, particularly in agriculture, infrastructure, tourism, and insurance. This paper provides a simple approach in showing the trends in extreme precipitation in the western part of Mexico. The methodology has an additional virtue as it enables the calculation of probabilities of change in extreme events. With this, it is feasible to develop new methodologies for better understanding of climate change.

Date: 2019
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