Age‐specific distributed lag models for heat ‐ related mortality

M. J. Heaton, C. R. Olenick and O. Wilhelmi

Environmetrics, 2019, vol. 30, issue 7

Abstract: Distributed lag (DL) models have been consistently used throughout the years to assess the cumulative impact of multiple days of high heat on public health. DL models, however, are often used on an aggregate level (e.g., city or census tracts) in spite of the fact that the effect of heat on health is individual specific, leading to possible ecological fallacies. To capture more individualized effects of heat on health, we propose a negative binomial regression model where the effect of lagged temperatures is age specific. Utilizing principles of predictive process models, we place appropriate smoothness and decay constraints on the associated DL surfaces. Furthermore, we borrow strength across ages to facilitate the estimation of the age‐specific DL function. Using death certificate data from the Texas Department of State Health Services, we show how different ages are impacted by consecutive days of high heat.

Date: 2019
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2561

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:envmet:v:30:y:2019:i:7:n:e2561

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=1180-4009

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Environmetrics from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().