Discussion on “A combined estimate of global temperature”

Peter W. Thorne

Environmetrics, 2022, vol. 33, issue 3

Abstract: While the real‐world has warmed in one unique way, the available data, which is spatio‐temporally incomplete and contains biases of unknown nature and timing, means this quantity can only ever be estimated. Craigmile and Guttorp (2022) propose an approach that optimally combines the range of existing products to gain a refined estimate. Implicit in this or, indeed, any similar approach, are assumptions about the available estimates representing both an unbiased and representative draw from the population of potential plausible estimates that could have been created. There are well‐founded reasons to doubt that this is the case. An alternative approach, used in the IPCC report, is to employ much simpler approaches which, in particular, hedge against underestimation of the true uncertainty in the evolution of global surface temperatures, and thus serve to future‐proof current estimates against subsequent dataset innovations arising from future improvements in our understanding.

Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2722

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:envmet:v:33:y:2022:i:3:n:e2722

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=1180-4009

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Environmetrics from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().