Modeling the spatial evolution wildfires using random spread process

Carlos Díaz‐Avalos and Pablo Juan

Environmetrics, 2022, vol. 33, issue 8

Abstract: The study of wildfire spread and the growth of the area burned is an important task in ecological studies and in other contexts. In this work we present a model for fire spread and show the results obtained from simulations of burned areas. The model is based on probabilities of fire at different locations. Such probabilities are obtained from the intensity function of a spatial point process model fitted to the observed pattern of fires in the Valencian Community for the years 1993–2015. The models, applied to different wildfires in Spain, including the different temporal states, combines the features of a network model with those of a quasi‐physical model of the interaction between burning and nonburning cells, which strongly depends on covariates. The results of the simulated wildfire burned areas resemble the burned areas observed in real cases, suggesting that the model proposed, based on a Markov process called Random Spread Process, works adequately. The model can be extended to simulate other random spread processes such as epidemics.

Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2774

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:envmet:v:33:y:2022:i:8:n:e2774

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=1180-4009

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Environmetrics from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().