Uncertainty: Nothing is more certain

Sally Cripps and Hugh Durrant‐Whyte

Environmetrics, 2023, vol. 34, issue 1

Abstract: This articles discusses the importance and types of uncertainty in environmental science. Uncertainty is categorized into four types, three of which are familiar to statisticians and one of which is introduced by the authors as knowledge uncertainty. The article claims that the Bayesian paradigm is a logically consistent mechanism, and a useful framework for decision makers in environmental science, to manage and quantify the first three types of uncertainty. However knowledge uncertainty, common in environmental sciences, requires more detailed thought and more nuanced management strategies for robust decision making in the environment. The article concludes with the observation that only if we acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in inferring complex quantities from data can we make robust and explainable policy decisions that build trust with the public.

Date: 2023
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