Futures & Foresight Science

2019 - 2025

From John Wiley & Sons
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Volume 7, issue 1, 2025

Foresight‐Related Dynamic Capabilities in Finnish Forest‐Based Bioeconomy SMEs

Anu Laakkonen, Aleksi Heiskanen, Annukka Näyhä, Anne Toppinen and Elias Hurmekoski

Revisiting the Use and Utility of Domain Mapping: A Comparative Study of the Future(s) of Diplomacy and International Affairs

Alex Wilner and Talya Stein

State of the Future 20.0 By Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore Gordon, Elizabeth Florescu, and the Millenium Project Team, The Millenium Project Washington DC, 470 p text plus appendixes with sources and further information, available through https://millennium-project.org/

Nikos Kastrinos

Can Narrative‐Based Scenarios Support Quantitative Judgmental Forecasting?

Paul Goodwin and George Wright

Collective Sensemaking and Reframing in Futures Thinking Engagements: Lessons From a Responsible Futuring Learning Trajectory

Julieta Matos‐Castaño, Maartje Huinink, Cristina Zaga and Mascha van der Voort

Integrating Anticipatory Governance and Causal Layered Analysis: A Novel Theoretical Framework for Long‐Term Socioeconomic Development Forecasting

Quoc Dung Ngo, Vu Hiep Hoang and Thi Van Hoa Tran

Envisioning Future Workforce Adaptability: A Multi‐Layered Analysis of Skills Ecosystems in Vietnam's Emerging Economy

Quoc Dung Ngo, Quynh Hoa Nguyen and Cuong Vu

Horizon Scanning Methods for Identification of New and Repurposed Medicines for Stakeholders in the United Kingdom

Sarah Khan, Ross Fairbairn, Rhiannon Potter, Amy Hussain, Alex Inskip and Gill Norman

Exploring Pathways for Change: A Practice‐Oriented Integration of Foresight and Sustainability Transitions

Björn Martin Persson, Johnn Andersson and Petter Bertilsson Forsberg

Who Will Govern Cybersecurity in Spain by 2035? Results From a Delphi Study

Cristina Del‐Real and Antonio M. Díaz‐Fernández

Participation of Civil Society in Security and Defense Foresight Exercises

Silvia Vicente‐Oliva

The Scenario Quality Assessment Method: A New Technique for Verifying the Quality of Scenarios

Steven Curnin, Oliver Brooks and Benjamin Brooks

Developing Guidelines for the Future of Visual Art Education: A Delphi Study of the Croatian Case

Lana Skender and Snježana Dubovicki

Comparative Analysis of Long‐Term Governance Problems: Risks of Climate Change and Artificial Intelligence

Atte Ojanen

Reflections on Building an Artificial Intelligence Bot to Prepare Students to Engage in Strategic Conversations During Foresight Fieldwork

Rui Pedro Gonçalves, Matthew J. Spaniol, Nicholas J. Rowland and Niels Gorm Malý Rytter

Using Horizon Scanning to Build Policy Resilience: Case of Waste Crime

Kenisha Garnett, Alister Wilson and Edith Wilkinson

The Holistic Framework of Time for Warfare

Elina Hiltunen and Aki‐Mauri Huhtinen

Calibration Feedback With the Practical Scoring Rule Does Not Improve Calibration of Confidence

Matthew Martin and David R. Mandel

The Future of Humanity—From Global Civilization to Great Civilization By Zhouying Jin, Chicago: Intellect, the University of Chicago Press. 2022. 2nd ed. Translated by Lane Jennings and Ying Bai. 338 pp of text + references (no index)

Alan Clardy

Understanding Foresight‐Policy Interactions: The Role of Institutionalization

Max Priebe, Sylvia Veit and Philine Warnke

Under what conditions? A scenario‐based approach for exploring the prerequisites of future events

Tommi Ekholm and Theresa Schaber

Corporate foresight for the benefit of corporates' innovation climate

Bernhard Wach, Jan O. Schwarz and Felix von Held

Volume 6, issue 4, 2024

Simulation‐based generation and analysis of multidimensional future scenarios with time series clustering

Patrick Steinmann, Koen van der Zwet and Bas Keijser

Incorporating judgment in forecasting models in times of crisis

Philip Hans Franses

A review of the future: A very short introduction

Nicholas J. Rowland and Alexis Ordess

Compatible effects of adopting imaginary future generations and systems thinking in exploring future challenges: Evidence from a deliberation experiment

Keishiro Hara, Yukari Fuchigami, Takanobu Arai and Yutaka Nomaguchi

Time and futures. Analysis of time‐needs in futures research

Veli Virmajoki and Mika‐Petri Laakkonen

Scoring rules and performance, new analysis of expert judgment data

Gabriela F. Nane and Roger Cooke

Commentators as prosumers: A legal perspective on their futures

Liudmila Sivetc

Volume 6, issue 3, 2024

Simplification errors in predictive models

Barbara L. van Veen and J. Roland Ortt

Don't push the wrong button. The concept of microperspective in futures research

Veli Virmajoki and Mika‐Petri Laakkonen

Arts‐based approaches for futures workshops: Creating and interpreting artistic futures images

Kai Lehikoinen and Satu Tuittila

Science fiction in military planning—Case allied command transformation and visions of warfare 2036

Elina Hiltunen and Aki‐Mauri Huhtinen

Restoring democratic stability: A backcasting wheel approach

Rick Szostak

Extreme uncertainty requires extreme resilience: Identifying the features of resilience in complex social systems faced with deep uncertainty

Leena Ilmola‐Sheppard and Phillip White

Volume 6, issue 2, 2024

Corporate foresight in light of the COVID‐19 pandemic—The crisis as a driver?

Theresa C. Schropp, Jan Oliver Schwarz and Fabian Buder

Calibration training for improving probabilistic judgments using an interactive app

Ross Gruetzemacher, Kang Bok Lee and David Paradice

The place and limits of futures analysis: Strategy under uncertainty 25 years on

Adam Vigdor Gordon

Citizens envisioning life in 2040: A qualitative corporate foresight study in London

Pauli Komonen and Susanne Jacobson

Volume 6, issue 1, 2024

Integrating system dynamics and scenarios: A framework based on personal experience

Martin Kunc

Exploring the limits on Meliorism: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023)

Philip E. Tetlock, Christopher Karvetski, Ville A. Satopää and Kevin Chen

Quality indicators for Delphi studies

Jon Landeta and Aitziber Lertxundi

Prediction in international relations is hard, sometimes: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023)

Paul Poast

Understanding the origins of foresight—How it has shaped our minds and societies

Björn M. Persson

Nuclear cascades or more of the same? Why meliorists may have gotten it right: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023)

Etel Solingen

What is predictable? A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023)

Daniel Treisman

A probabilistic cross‐impact methodology for explorative scenario analysis

Juho Roponen and Ahti Salo

Long‐range subjective‐probability forecasts of slow‐motion variables in world politics: Exploring limits on expert judgment

Philip E. Tetlock, Christopher Karvetski, Ville A. Satopää and Kevin Chen

Volume 5, issue 3-4, 2023

A review of strategic planning for dynamic supply chains: Preparing for uncertainty using scenarios

Megan M. Crawford and Eoin Plant‐O'Toole

Scenario planning: Reflecting on cases of actionable knowledge

John J. Oliver

Designing research strategy and technology innovation for sustainability by adopting “imaginary future generations”—A case study using metallurgy

Keishiro Hara, Iori Miura, Masanori Suzuki and Toshihiro Tanaka

Explaining and critiquing the postnormal: A warning against ideologies in the field of futures and foresight

Alex Fergnani

Facilitating spatial consensus in complex future scenarios through Real‐Time Spatial Delphi: A novel web‐based open platform

Yuri Calleo, Simone Di Zio and Francesco Pilla

Perceived environmental turbulence and corporate strategy: The case of the UK recession

Efstathios Tapinos, Graham Leask and Mike Brown

Volume 5, issue 2, 2023

The value of experiments in futures and foresight science: A reply

James Derbyshire, Mandeep K. Dhami, Ian Belton and Dilek Önkal

Exploring scenario planning through controlled experimentation: Commentary on Derbyshire et al. (2022)

Paul Schoemaker

On the boundaries of experimental research on scenario planning: A commentary on Derbyshire et al. (2022)

Ahti Salo

The theory of narrative thought, by Lee Roy Beach and James A. Wise. UK: Cambridge Scholars Publishing, 2022. x+195 pp. ISBN: 1527581624 (hardback); £64.99

Nicholas Glunt, Jazzmine McCauley, Nicholas J. Rowland, Shanette Wahor, Alexander B. Kinney and Nathan E. Kruis

Considering field factors to enhance external validity of scenario planning experiments: A commentary on Derbyshire et al. (2022)

Shardul S. Phadnis

AI‐assisted scenario generation for strategic planning

Matthew J. Spaniol and Nicholas J. Rowland

On replication in science: Commentary on Derbyshire et al. (2022)

Nicholas J. Rowland and Matthew J. Spaniol

The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning

James Derbyshire, Mandeep Dhami, Ian Belton and Dilek Önkal

Constructing Delphi statements for technology foresight

Per Dannemand Andersen

Volume 5, issue 1, 2023

Free will determines the limits of psychological foresight: Review of “Free Will” by Sam Harris

David J. Grüning

The science behind “values”: Applying moral foundations theory to strategic foresight

Brent Mills and Alex Wilner

Future scenarios for improving Iran's overall destination image and attractiveness: A supply‐side perspective

Mohammad Nematpour, Masood Khodadadi, Sarasadat Makian and Mohammad Ghaffari

Computer‐aided scenario design using participatory backcasting: A case study of sustainable vision creation in a Japanese city

Yusuke Kishita, Takuma Masuda, Hidenori Nakamura and Kazumasu Aoki

Averaging quantiles, variance shrinkage, and overconfidence

Roger Cooke

Supporting distributed and integrated execution of future‐oriented technology analysis

Carlos E. Barbosa, Yuri Lima, Matheus Emerick, Fabio Ferman, Fernanda C. Ribeiro and Jano Moreira de Souza