Futures & Foresight Science

2019 - 2024

From John Wiley & Sons
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Volume 6, issue 4, 2024

Simulation‐based generation and analysis of multidimensional future scenarios with time series clustering

Patrick Steinmann, Koen van der Zwet and Bas Keijser

Incorporating judgment in forecasting models in times of crisis

Philip Hans Franses

A review of the future: A very short introduction

Nicholas J. Rowland and Alexis Ordess

Compatible effects of adopting imaginary future generations and systems thinking in exploring future challenges: Evidence from a deliberation experiment

Keishiro Hara, Yukari Fuchigami, Takanobu Arai and Yutaka Nomaguchi

Time and futures. Analysis of time‐needs in futures research

Veli Virmajoki and Mika‐Petri Laakkonen

Scoring rules and performance, new analysis of expert judgment data

Gabriela F. Nane and Roger Cooke

Commentators as prosumers: A legal perspective on their futures

Liudmila Sivetc

Volume 6, issue 3, 2024

Simplification errors in predictive models

Barbara L. van Veen and J. Roland Ortt

Don't push the wrong button. The concept of microperspective in futures research

Veli Virmajoki and Mika‐Petri Laakkonen

Arts‐based approaches for futures workshops: Creating and interpreting artistic futures images

Kai Lehikoinen and Satu Tuittila

Science fiction in military planning—Case allied command transformation and visions of warfare 2036

Elina Hiltunen and Aki‐Mauri Huhtinen

Restoring democratic stability: A backcasting wheel approach

Rick Szostak

Extreme uncertainty requires extreme resilience: Identifying the features of resilience in complex social systems faced with deep uncertainty

Leena Ilmola‐Sheppard and Phillip White

Volume 6, issue 2, 2024

Corporate foresight in light of the COVID‐19 pandemic—The crisis as a driver?

Theresa C. Schropp, Jan Oliver Schwarz and Fabian Buder

Calibration training for improving probabilistic judgments using an interactive app

Ross Gruetzemacher, Kang Bok Lee and David Paradice

The place and limits of futures analysis: Strategy under uncertainty 25 years on

Adam Vigdor Gordon

Citizens envisioning life in 2040: A qualitative corporate foresight study in London

Pauli Komonen and Susanne Jacobson

Volume 6, issue 1, 2024

Integrating system dynamics and scenarios: A framework based on personal experience

Martin Kunc

Exploring the limits on Meliorism: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023)

Philip E. Tetlock, Christopher Karvetski, Ville A. Satopää and Kevin Chen

Quality indicators for Delphi studies

Jon Landeta and Aitziber Lertxundi

Prediction in international relations is hard, sometimes: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023)

Paul Poast

Understanding the origins of foresight—How it has shaped our minds and societies

Björn M. Persson

Nuclear cascades or more of the same? Why meliorists may have gotten it right: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023)

Etel Solingen

What is predictable? A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023)

Daniel Treisman

A probabilistic cross‐impact methodology for explorative scenario analysis

Juho Roponen and Ahti Salo

Long‐range subjective‐probability forecasts of slow‐motion variables in world politics: Exploring limits on expert judgment

Philip E. Tetlock, Christopher Karvetski, Ville A. Satopää and Kevin Chen

Volume 5, issue 3-4, 2023

A review of strategic planning for dynamic supply chains: Preparing for uncertainty using scenarios

Megan M. Crawford and Eoin Plant‐O'Toole

Scenario planning: Reflecting on cases of actionable knowledge

John J. Oliver

Designing research strategy and technology innovation for sustainability by adopting “imaginary future generations”—A case study using metallurgy

Keishiro Hara, Iori Miura, Masanori Suzuki and Toshihiro Tanaka

Explaining and critiquing the postnormal: A warning against ideologies in the field of futures and foresight

Alex Fergnani

Facilitating spatial consensus in complex future scenarios through Real‐Time Spatial Delphi: A novel web‐based open platform

Yuri Calleo, Simone Di Zio and Francesco Pilla

Perceived environmental turbulence and corporate strategy: The case of the UK recession

Efstathios Tapinos, Graham Leask and Mike Brown

Volume 5, issue 2, 2023

The value of experiments in futures and foresight science: A reply

James Derbyshire, Mandeep K. Dhami, Ian Belton and Dilek Önkal

Exploring scenario planning through controlled experimentation: Commentary on Derbyshire et al. (2022)

Paul Schoemaker

On the boundaries of experimental research on scenario planning: A commentary on Derbyshire et al. (2022)

Ahti Salo

The theory of narrative thought, by Lee Roy Beach and James A. Wise. UK: Cambridge Scholars Publishing, 2022. x+195 pp. ISBN: 1527581624 (hardback); £64.99

Nicholas Glunt, Jazzmine McCauley, Nicholas J. Rowland, Shanette Wahor, Alexander B. Kinney and Nathan E. Kruis

Considering field factors to enhance external validity of scenario planning experiments: A commentary on Derbyshire et al. (2022)

Shardul S. Phadnis

AI‐assisted scenario generation for strategic planning

Matthew J. Spaniol and Nicholas J. Rowland

On replication in science: Commentary on Derbyshire et al. (2022)

Nicholas J. Rowland and Matthew J. Spaniol

The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning

James Derbyshire, Mandeep Dhami, Ian Belton and Dilek Önkal

Constructing Delphi statements for technology foresight

Per Dannemand Andersen

Volume 5, issue 1, 2023

Free will determines the limits of psychological foresight: Review of “Free Will” by Sam Harris

David J. Grüning

The science behind “values”: Applying moral foundations theory to strategic foresight

Brent Mills and Alex Wilner

Future scenarios for improving Iran's overall destination image and attractiveness: A supply‐side perspective

Mohammad Nematpour, Masood Khodadadi, Sarasadat Makian and Mohammad Ghaffari

Computer‐aided scenario design using participatory backcasting: A case study of sustainable vision creation in a Japanese city

Yusuke Kishita, Takuma Masuda, Hidenori Nakamura and Kazumasu Aoki

Averaging quantiles, variance shrinkage, and overconfidence

Roger Cooke

Supporting distributed and integrated execution of future‐oriented technology analysis

Carlos E. Barbosa, Yuri Lima, Matheus Emerick, Fabio Ferman, Fernanda C. Ribeiro and Jano Moreira de Souza

Volume 4, issue 3-4, 2022

Deepening the conversation about the role of emotions and affective processes as barriers and enablers of decision making under uncertainty: Commentary on Fenton‐O'Creevy and Tuckett (2021)

Gerard P. Hodgkinson and Mark P. Healey

A net‐zero Swiss energy system by 2050: Technological and policy options for the transition of the transportation sector

Ramachandran Kannan, Evangelos Panos, Stefan Hirschberg and Tom Kober

Leaving the path of optimality calculation: A commentary on Fenton‐O'Creevy and Tuckett, 2021: Selecting futures: The role of conviction, narratives, ambivalence, and constructive doubt

Jens Beckert

Point, interval, and density forecasts: Differences in bias, judgment noise, and overall accuracy

Xiaoxiao Niu and Nigel Harvey

Commentary on "Selecting futures: The role of conviction, narratives, ambivalence, and constructive doubt" by Fenton‐O'Creevy and Tuckett (2021)

John Kay

Dominant narratives, uncertainty denial, negative capability, and conviction: A commentary on Fenton‐O'Creevy and Tuckett (2021)

James Derbyshire

Selecting futures: The role of conviction, narratives, ambivalence, and constructive doubt

Mark Fenton‐O'Creevy and David Tuckett

Advanced Introduction to Scenario Planning by Paul J. H. Schoemaker. Cheltenham, UK & Northampton, MA, USA, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2022, ix + 176 pp. ISBN 9781800376793 (hardback); 9781800376809 (ebook); 9781800376816 (paperback)

Nicholas J. Rowland

Synthesis of human and artificial intelligence: Review of “How to stay smart in a smart world: Why human intelligence still beats algorithms” by Gerd Gigerenzer

David J. Grüning

Conviction, narratives, ambivalence, and constructive doubt: Reflections on six expert commentaries

Mark Fenton‐O'Creevy and David Tuckett

Cocreating futures—A response to Fenton‐O'Creevy and Tuckett, “Selecting futures: The role of conviction, narratives, ambivalence, and constructive doubt”

Angela Wilkinson and Betty S. Flowers

The force that rules the world: Commentary on Fenton‐O'Creevy and Tuckett (2021)

Heiko A. von der Gracht

Volume 4, issue 2, 2022

A critical evaluation of 42, large‐scale, science and technology foresight Delphi surveys

Ian Belton, Kerstin Cuhls and George Wright

Tracing the progress of scenario research in business and management

Arbrie Jashari, Victor Tiberius and Marina Dabic

Using cross‐impact analysis for probabilistic risk assessment

Ahti Salo, Edoardo Tosoni, Juho Roponen and Derek W. Bunn

What about the future? New perspectives on planning, forecasting and complexity by Fred Phillips

Riccardo Vecchiato

Expanding the IPAT identity to quantify backcasting sustainability scenarios

Kristian Skånberg and Åsa Svenfelt

Volume 4, issue 1, 2022

New perspectives for data‐supported foresight: The hybrid AI‐expert approach

Amber Geurts, Ralph Gutknecht, Philine Warnke, Arjen Goetheer, Elna Schirrmeister, Babette Bakker and Svetlana Meissner

Robust action and scenarios: A rejoinder

Nicholas J. Rowland and Matthew J. Spaniol

The conversation is great, but we need to talk more about theory, emotions, and ‘gut’ feelings: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)

Gerard P. Hodgkinson

From Shell engineer to social architect and thought leader: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)

Paul Schoemaker

Professor Kees van der Heijden: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)

Ronald M. Bradfield

A timely (and timeless) blend of theory and practice: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)

Gary Bowman

Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)

Robert Fildes

Kees van der Heijden, a personal reflection: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol 2021

Trudi Lang

Start‐ups and the art of ignoring the future: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol 2021

Rixa Georgi‐Kröhl

What's luck got to do with it? Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)

Heiko A. von der Gracht

“It depends on the client”—Kees van der Heijden and client‐centric scenario planning: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol 2021

Rafael Ramirez

From alternative pictures of the future to an organizational intervention: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol

Jan Oliver Schwarz

The strategic conversation, 25 years later: A retrospective review of Kees van der Heijden's Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation

Nicholas J. Rowland and Matthew J. Spaniol

Technology foresight for sustainable road freight transportation: Insights from a global real‐time Delphi study

Tobias Meyer, Heiko A. von der Gracht and Evi Hartmann