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Futures & Foresight Science

2019 - 2024

From John Wiley & Sons
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Volume 6, issue 4, 2024

Simulation‐based generation and analysis of multidimensional future scenarios with time series clustering Downloads
Patrick Steinmann, Koen van der Zwet and Bas Keijser
Incorporating judgment in forecasting models in times of crisis Downloads
Philip Hans Franses
A review of the future: A very short introduction Downloads
Nicholas J. Rowland and Alexis Ordess
Compatible effects of adopting imaginary future generations and systems thinking in exploring future challenges: Evidence from a deliberation experiment Downloads
Keishiro Hara, Yukari Fuchigami, Takanobu Arai and Yutaka Nomaguchi
Time and futures. Analysis of time‐needs in futures research Downloads
Veli Virmajoki and Mika‐Petri Laakkonen
Scoring rules and performance, new analysis of expert judgment data Downloads
Gabriela F. Nane and Roger M. Cooke
Commentators as prosumers: A legal perspective on their futures Downloads
Liudmila Sivetc

Volume 6, issue 3, 2024

Simplification errors in predictive models Downloads
Barbara L. van Veen and J. Roland Ortt
Don't push the wrong button. The concept of microperspective in futures research Downloads
Veli Virmajoki and Mika‐Petri Laakkonen
Arts‐based approaches for futures workshops: Creating and interpreting artistic futures images Downloads
Kai Lehikoinen and Satu Tuittila
Science fiction in military planning—Case allied command transformation and visions of warfare 2036 Downloads
Elina Hiltunen and Aki‐Mauri Huhtinen
Restoring democratic stability: A backcasting wheel approach Downloads
Rick Szostak
Extreme uncertainty requires extreme resilience: Identifying the features of resilience in complex social systems faced with deep uncertainty Downloads
Leena Ilmola‐Sheppard and Phillip White

Volume 6, issue 2, 2024

Corporate foresight in light of the COVID‐19 pandemic—The crisis as a driver? Downloads
Theresa C. Schropp, Jan Oliver Schwarz and Fabian Buder
Calibration training for improving probabilistic judgments using an interactive app Downloads
Ross Gruetzemacher, Kang Bok Lee and David Paradice
The place and limits of futures analysis: Strategy under uncertainty 25 years on Downloads
Adam Vigdor Gordon
Citizens envisioning life in 2040: A qualitative corporate foresight study in London Downloads
Pauli Komonen and Susanne Jacobson

Volume 6, issue 1, 2024

Integrating system dynamics and scenarios: A framework based on personal experience Downloads
Martin Kunc
Exploring the limits on Meliorism: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023) Downloads
Philip E. Tetlock, Christopher Karvetski, Ville A. Satopää and Kevin Chen
Quality indicators for Delphi studies Downloads
Jon Landeta and Aitziber Lertxundi
Prediction in international relations is hard, sometimes: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023) Downloads
Paul Poast
Understanding the origins of foresight—How it has shaped our minds and societies Downloads
Björn M. Persson
Nuclear cascades or more of the same? Why meliorists may have gotten it right: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023) Downloads
Etel Solingen
What is predictable? A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023) Downloads
Daniel Treisman
A probabilistic cross‐impact methodology for explorative scenario analysis Downloads
Juho Roponen and Ahti Salo
Long‐range subjective‐probability forecasts of slow‐motion variables in world politics: Exploring limits on expert judgment Downloads
Philip E. Tetlock, Christopher Karvetski, Ville A. Satopää and Kevin Chen

Volume 5, issue 3-4, 2023

A review of strategic planning for dynamic supply chains: Preparing for uncertainty using scenarios Downloads
Megan M. Crawford and Eoin Plant‐O'Toole
Scenario planning: Reflecting on cases of actionable knowledge Downloads
John J. Oliver
Designing research strategy and technology innovation for sustainability by adopting “imaginary future generations”—A case study using metallurgy Downloads
Keishiro Hara, Iori Miura, Masanori Suzuki and Toshihiro Tanaka
Explaining and critiquing the postnormal: A warning against ideologies in the field of futures and foresight Downloads
Alex Fergnani
Facilitating spatial consensus in complex future scenarios through Real‐Time Spatial Delphi: A novel web‐based open platform Downloads
Yuri Calleo, Simone Di Zio and Francesco Pilla
Perceived environmental turbulence and corporate strategy: The case of the UK recession Downloads
Efstathios Tapinos, Graham Leask and Mike Brown

Volume 5, issue 2, 2023

The value of experiments in futures and foresight science: A reply Downloads
James Derbyshire, Mandeep K. Dhami, Ian Belton and Dilek Önkal
Exploring scenario planning through controlled experimentation: Commentary on Derbyshire et al. (2022) Downloads
Paul Schoemaker
On the boundaries of experimental research on scenario planning: A commentary on Derbyshire et al. (2022) Downloads
Ahti Salo
The theory of narrative thought, by Lee Roy Beach and James A. Wise. UK: Cambridge Scholars Publishing, 2022. x+195 pp. ISBN: 1527581624 (hardback); £64.99 Downloads
Nicholas Glunt, Jazzmine McCauley, Nicholas J. Rowland, Shanette Wahor, Alexander B. Kinney and Nathan E. Kruis
Considering field factors to enhance external validity of scenario planning experiments: A commentary on Derbyshire et al. (2022) Downloads
Shardul S. Phadnis
AI‐assisted scenario generation for strategic planning Downloads
Matthew J. Spaniol and Nicholas J. Rowland
On replication in science: Commentary on Derbyshire et al. (2022) Downloads
Nicholas J. Rowland and Matthew J. Spaniol
The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning Downloads
James Derbyshire, Mandeep Dhami, Ian Belton and Dilek Önkal
Constructing Delphi statements for technology foresight Downloads
Per Dannemand Andersen

Volume 5, issue 1, 2023

Free will determines the limits of psychological foresight: Review of “Free Will” by Sam Harris Downloads
David J. Grüning
The science behind “values”: Applying moral foundations theory to strategic foresight Downloads
Brent Mills and Alex Wilner
Future scenarios for improving Iran's overall destination image and attractiveness: A supply‐side perspective Downloads
Mohammad Nematpour, Masood Khodadadi, Sarasadat Makian and Mohammad Ghaffari
Computer‐aided scenario design using participatory backcasting: A case study of sustainable vision creation in a Japanese city Downloads
Yusuke Kishita, Takuma Masuda, Hidenori Nakamura and Kazumasu Aoki
Averaging quantiles, variance shrinkage, and overconfidence Downloads
Roger Cooke
Supporting distributed and integrated execution of future‐oriented technology analysis Downloads
Carlos E. Barbosa, Yuri Lima, Matheus Emerick, Fabio Ferman, Fernanda C. Ribeiro and Jano Moreira de Souza

Volume 4, issue 3-4, 2022

Deepening the conversation about the role of emotions and affective processes as barriers and enablers of decision making under uncertainty: Commentary on Fenton‐O'Creevy and Tuckett (2021) Downloads
Gerard P. Hodgkinson and Mark P. Healey
A net‐zero Swiss energy system by 2050: Technological and policy options for the transition of the transportation sector Downloads
Ramachandran Kannan, Evangelos Panos, Stefan Hirschberg and Tom Kober
Leaving the path of optimality calculation: A commentary on Fenton‐O'Creevy and Tuckett, 2021: Selecting futures: The role of conviction, narratives, ambivalence, and constructive doubt Downloads
Jens Beckert
Point, interval, and density forecasts: Differences in bias, judgment noise, and overall accuracy Downloads
Xiaoxiao Niu and Nigel Harvey
Commentary on "Selecting futures: The role of conviction, narratives, ambivalence, and constructive doubt" by Fenton‐O'Creevy and Tuckett (2021) Downloads
John Kay
Dominant narratives, uncertainty denial, negative capability, and conviction: A commentary on Fenton‐O'Creevy and Tuckett (2021) Downloads
James Derbyshire
Selecting futures: The role of conviction, narratives, ambivalence, and constructive doubt Downloads
Mark Fenton‐O'Creevy and David Tuckett
Advanced Introduction to Scenario Planning by Paul J. H. Schoemaker. Cheltenham, UK & Northampton, MA, USA, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2022, ix + 176 pp. ISBN 9781800376793 (hardback); 9781800376809 (ebook); 9781800376816 (paperback) Downloads
Nicholas J. Rowland
Synthesis of human and artificial intelligence: Review of “How to stay smart in a smart world: Why human intelligence still beats algorithms” by Gerd Gigerenzer Downloads
David J. Grüning
Conviction, narratives, ambivalence, and constructive doubt: Reflections on six expert commentaries Downloads
Mark Fenton‐O'Creevy and David Tuckett
Cocreating futures—A response to Fenton‐O'Creevy and Tuckett, “Selecting futures: The role of conviction, narratives, ambivalence, and constructive doubt” Downloads
Angela Wilkinson and Betty S. Flowers
The force that rules the world: Commentary on Fenton‐O'Creevy and Tuckett (2021) Downloads
Heiko A. von der Gracht

Volume 4, issue 2, 2022

A critical evaluation of 42, large‐scale, science and technology foresight Delphi surveys Downloads
Ian Belton, Kerstin Cuhls and George Wright
Tracing the progress of scenario research in business and management Downloads
Arbrie Jashari, Victor Tiberius and Marina Dabic
Using cross‐impact analysis for probabilistic risk assessment Downloads
Ahti Salo, Edoardo Tosoni, Juho Roponen and Derek W. Bunn
What about the future? New perspectives on planning, forecasting and complexity by Fred Phillips Downloads
Riccardo Vecchiato
Expanding the IPAT identity to quantify backcasting sustainability scenarios Downloads
Kristian Skånberg and Åsa Svenfelt

Volume 4, issue 1, 2022

New perspectives for data‐supported foresight: The hybrid AI‐expert approach Downloads
Amber Geurts, Ralph Gutknecht, Philine Warnke, Arjen Goetheer, Elna Schirrmeister, Babette Bakker and Svetlana Meissner
Robust action and scenarios: A rejoinder Downloads
Nicholas J. Rowland and Matthew J. Spaniol
The conversation is great, but we need to talk more about theory, emotions, and ‘gut’ feelings: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021) Downloads
Gerard P. Hodgkinson
From Shell engineer to social architect and thought leader: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021) Downloads
Paul Schoemaker
Professor Kees van der Heijden: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021) Downloads
Ronald M. Bradfield
A timely (and timeless) blend of theory and practice: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021) Downloads
Gary Bowman
Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021) Downloads
Robert Fildes
Kees van der Heijden, a personal reflection: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol 2021 Downloads
Trudi Lang
Start‐ups and the art of ignoring the future: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol 2021 Downloads
Rixa Georgi‐Kröhl
What's luck got to do with it? Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021) Downloads
Heiko A. von der Gracht
“It depends on the client”—Kees van der Heijden and client‐centric scenario planning: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol 2021 Downloads
Rafael Ramirez
From alternative pictures of the future to an organizational intervention: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol Downloads
Jan Oliver Schwarz
The strategic conversation, 25 years later: A retrospective review of Kees van der Heijden's Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation Downloads
Nicholas J. Rowland and Matthew J. Spaniol
Technology foresight for sustainable road freight transportation: Insights from a global real‐time Delphi study Downloads
Tobias Meyer, Heiko A. von der Gracht and Evi Hartmann
Page updated 2025-03-31