Incorporating judgment in forecasting models in times of crisis

Philip Hans Franses

Futures & Foresight Science, 2024, vol. 6, issue 4

Abstract: This paper introduces a simple and reproducible method to modify model forecasts using expert forecasts which is useful in crisis times. The idea is to add the expert forecast as an additional observation of the dependent variable, and to extend the model with an additional explanatory variable such as the square of a deterministic trend. Next, the new model forecast is combined with the expert forecast using equal weights. We show that it works well for gross domestic product growth forecasts for 2020 for 12 countries and that it improves upon an equal‐weighted combination of the original model forecast and expert forecast.

Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.193

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:6:y:2024:i:4:n:e193

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Futures & Foresight Science from John Wiley & Sons
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().