Reimagining Digital Labour Futures in Vietnam: A Causal Layered Analysis Case Study of Socio‐Technical Transitions in an Emerging Economy

Thi Van Hoa Tran and Quoc Dung Ngo

Futures & Foresight Science, 2025, vol. 7, issue 3

Abstract: Vietnam's rapid digital transformation presents a complex paradox: whilst the digital economy demonstrates exceptional growth exceeding 20% annually, the labour market exhibits deepening precarity and structural inequalities. This study employs a comprehensive Futures Studies approach, utilising Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), scenario planning, and the Futures Wheel, to examine Vietnam's digital labour dynamics through in‐depth interviews with 28 stakeholders across five categories: workers, employers, educators, policymakers, and futures experts. Grounded in Inayatullah's Six Pillars Framework for futures thinking, the research reveals four distinct layers of causality: surface trends showing accelerated digitisation and gig economy expansion; systemic causes including policy‐driven development and legal grey zones; worldviews characterised by pervasive techno‐optimism and partnership illusions; and deep myths positioning Vietnam as an “Asian Tiger” pursuing a “Digital Leapfrog.” Futures Wheel analysis maps the cascading impacts of widespread AI adoption, while scenario planning identifies four potential pathways, ranging from inclusive digital prosperity to stratified precarity. The findings demonstrate how surface‐level economic success can coexist with microeconomic vulnerability when social infrastructure fails to keep pace with technological advancements. This rigorous application of established Futures Studies methods provides empirical insights for managing digital labour transitions in emerging economies, contributing substantial case study evidence and practical policy insights for ensuring equitable development outcomes whilst leveraging technological opportunities.

Date: 2025
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https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70027

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