EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Ageing and health‐care expenditure: the red herring argument revisited

Meena Seshamani and Alastair Gray ()

Health Economics, 2004, vol. 13, issue 4, 303-314

Abstract: Zweifel and colleagues have previously proposed that proximity to death is a more important influence on health‐care costs than age, suggesting that demographic change per se will not have a large impact on future aggregate health expenditure. However, issues of econometric methodology have led to challenges of the robustness of these findings. This paper revisits the analysis. Using a longitudinal hospital data set from Oxfordshire, England, the two‐step Heckman model from the Zweifel study is first replicated, to find that neither age nor proximity to death have a significant effect on hospital costs. Econometric problems with the model are demonstrated, and instead a two‐part model shows both age and proximity to death to have significant effects on quarterly hospital costs. Cost predictions, calculated with bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals, further demonstrate that while age may significantly affect quarterly costs, these cost changes are small compared to the tripling of quarterly costs that occurs with approaching death in the last year of life. The analyses show the importance of model selection to properly assess the determinants of health‐care expenditures. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2004
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (101) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.826

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:13:y:2004:i:4:p:303-314

Access Statistics for this article

Health Economics is currently edited by Alan Maynard, John Hutton and Andrew Jones

More articles in Health Economics from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().

 
Page updated 2020-11-11
Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:13:y:2004:i:4:p:303-314