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Investment in antiviral drugs: a real options approach

Arthur Attema, Anna K. Lugnér and Talitha L. Feenstra
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Anna K. Lugnér: Center for Infectious Disease Control Netherlands, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands, Postal: Center for Infectious Disease Control Netherlands, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands

Health Economics, 2010, vol. 19, issue 10, 1240-1254

Abstract: Real options analysis is a promising approach to model investment under uncertainty. We employ this approach to value stockpiling of antiviral drugs as a precautionary measure against a possible influenza pandemic. Modifications of the real options approach to include risk attitude and deviations from expected utility are presented. We show that risk aversion counteracts the tendency to delay investment for this case of precautionary investment, which is in contrast to earlier applications of risk aversion to real options analysis. Moreover, we provide a numerical example using real world data and discuss the implications of real options analysis for health policy. Suggestions for further extensions of the model and a comparison with the expected value of information analysis are put forward. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2010
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:19:y:2010:i:10:p:1240-1254

DOI: 10.1002/hec.1549

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