ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF IMMIGRANTS ON THE HOST COUNTRY SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM WHEN RETURN MIGRATION IS AN ENDOGENOUS CHOICE

Murat Kırdar

International Economic Review, 2012, vol. 53, issue 2, 453-486

Abstract: This article estimates immigrants’ fiscal impact on the German pension insurance and unemployment insurance systems when return migration is an endogenous choice. For this purpose, it develops a dynamic stochastic model of joint return migration and saving decisions and estimates it using longitudinal data on immigrants from five countries. The results indicate that exogenous return migration—which has been the practice of the literature so far—underestimates the state coffers’ net gain substantially; e.g., the unemployment insurance system’s net gain from Turks arriving after age 30 falls by an amount that is roughly equal to their annual earnings at arrival.

Date: 2012
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2012.00688.x

Related works:
Working Paper: Estimating the Impact of Immigrants on the Host Country Social Security System When Return Migration is an Endogenous Choice (2010)
Working Paper: Estimating the impact of immigrants on the host country social security system when return migration is an endogenous choice (2008)
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