GLOBAL BUSINESS CYCLES: CONVERGENCE OR DECOUPLING?

Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok and Eswar Prasad

International Economic Review, 2012, vol. 53, issue 2, 511-538

Abstract: We analyze the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960–2008. Using a dynamic factor model, we decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in output, consumption, and investment into a global factor, factors specific to country groups, and country‐specific factors. We find that during 1985–2008, there is some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among industrial economies and among emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there is a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. We conclude that there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.

Date: 2012
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (224)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2012.00690.x

Related works:
Working Paper: Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling? (2008)
Working Paper: Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling? (2008)
Working Paper: Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling? (2008)
Working Paper: Global business cycles: convergence or decoupling? (2008)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:53:y:2012:i:2:p:511-538

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0020-6598

Access Statistics for this article

International Economic Review is currently edited by Michael O'Riordan and Dirk Krueger

More articles in International Economic Review from Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association 160 McNeil Building, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().