THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM IN GOOD AND BAD TIMES

Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico

International Economic Review, 2015, vol. 56, issue 4, 1237-1260

Abstract: Does the transmission of economic policies and structural shocks vary with the state of the economy? We answer this question using a strategy based on quantile regressions, which account for endogenous regressors and state‐dependent parameters. An application to U.S. real activity and interest rate reveals pervasive asymmetries in the propagation mechanism across good and bad times. During periods when real activity is above its conditional average, the estimates of the degree of forward‐lookingness and interest rate semi‐elasticity are significantly larger (in absolute value) than the estimates associated with below‐average periods. Results are robust to alternative strategies to model state‐dependent parameters.

Date: 2015
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https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12136

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Working Paper: The Transmission Mechanism in Good and Bad Times (2014)
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