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THE COST OF GREENING STIMULUS: A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF VEHICLE SCRAPPAGE PROGRAMS

Shanjun Li, Youming Liu and Chao Wei

International Economic Review, 2022, vol. 63, issue 4, 1561-1594

Abstract: This article investigates the potential trade‐off between the stimulus and environmental objectives in the context of the U.S. vehicle scrappage program. We develop and estimate a dynamic model of vehicle ownership and conduct a counterfactual analysis comparing the implemented policy with alternative designs. We find the cost of the implemented policy 25% higher in terms of induced sales and 64% higher in terms of induced spending than a policy design without the environmental objective. The findings serve as a caution for green stimulus programs to address both climate change and the economic crisis from the ongoing pandemic.

Date: 2022
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International Economic Review is currently edited by Michael O'Riordan and Dirk Krueger

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