UNDERSTANDING THE GREAT RECESSION THROUGH THE BANKING SECTOR

Toshiaki Ogawa

International Economic Review, 2025, vol. 66, issue 1, 331-361

Abstract: I develop a general equilibrium model to explore heterogeneous bank liquidity management. Smaller banks, driven by stronger precautionary motives, tend to accumulate capital and liquidity buffers, rendering them less susceptible to liquidity risk than larger banks. Whereas negative productivity shocks affect all banks' loans similarly, liquidity shocks result in lending responses that vary by bank size. Mapping the model to panel data, I argue that initially, liquidity shocks were the primary driver of the Great Recession, followed by negative demand shocks that accounted for approximately 60% of the recession's greatest fall in aggregate loans.

Date: 2025
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