Economics at your fingertips  

Revisiting Fama–French factors' predictability with Bayesian modelling and copula‐based portfolio optimization

Yang Zhao, Charalampos Stasinakis, Georgios Sermpinis and Filipa Da Silva Fernandes

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2019, vol. 24, issue 4, 1443-1463

Abstract: This study is investigating the predictability of the five Fama–French factors and explores their optimal portfolio allocation for factor investing during 2000–2017. Firstly, we forecast each factor with a pool of linear and nonlinear models. Next, the individual forecasts are combined through dynamic model averaging, and their performance is benchmarked by the best performing individual predictor and other forecast combination techniques. Finally, we use the generalized autoregressive score model and the skewed t copula method to estimate the correlation of assets. The generalized autoregressive score performance is also compared with other traditional approaches such as dynamic conditional correlation model and asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation. The performance of the constructed portfolios is assessed through traditional metrics and ratios accounting for the conditional value‐at‐risk and the conditional diversification benefits approach. Our results show that combining Bayesian forecast combinations with copulas is leading to significant improvements in the portfolio optimization process, and forecasting covariance accounting for asymmetric dependence between the factors adds diversification benefits to the obtained portfolios.

Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://jws-edcv.wile ... PRINT_ISSN=1076-9307

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Finance & Economics is currently edited by Mark P. Taylor, Keith Cuthbertson and Michael P. Dooley

More articles in International Journal of Finance & Economics from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().

Page updated 2023-03-05
Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:24:y:2019:i:4:p:1443-1463