Treasuries variance decomposition and the impact of monetary policy

Alexandros Kontonikas (), Charles Nolan, Zivile Zekaite and Michael Lamla

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2019, vol. 24, issue 4, 1506-1519

Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of monetary policy shifts on Treasuries over the last three decades. We decompose unexpected excess returns on 2‐, 5‐, and 10‐year Treasuries in three components related to revisions in expectations (news) about future excess returns, inflation, and real interest rates. We evaluate the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks on returns and their components. Our results indicate that expansionary monetary policy shocks are associated with declining inflation expectations and higher Treasuries' returns.

Date: 2019
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