EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Network‐based early warning system to predict financial crisis

Hossein Dastkhan

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2021, vol. 26, issue 1, 594-616

Abstract: In recent years, early warning systems have been developed as a significant tool to prevent financial and economic crises. In this paper, we applied the forward‐looking conditional value at risk (COVaR) as a market‐based systemic risk measure to analyse the systemic risk in an emerging market. A network representation of asset exposures is presented based on the values of ΔCoVaR. According to the exposure networks, two new network‐based indices are introduced. Furthermore, regarding the dependence of the new indices on the values of forward‐looking CoVaR, they are applied as the indicators for the proposed early warning system to predict downturns and crises in the level of firms and the whole market. The results of the early warning system for the market return show that the indicators based on both proposed models have a good ability to predict the crises in the market. In other words, the indicators issued a warning signal up to seven periods before the real crisis in the market. Similarly, the results of the early warning system to predict downturns at the level of firms also indicate the ability of indicators to issue the true warning signals. The results of the proposed system can help policymakers and authorities to determine the appropriate microprudential and macroprudential policies to avoid systemic risks.

Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1806

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:26:y:2021:i:1:p:594-616

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://jws-edcv.wile ... PRINT_ISSN=1076-9307

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Finance & Economics is currently edited by Mark P. Taylor, Keith Cuthbertson and Michael P. Dooley

More articles in International Journal of Finance & Economics from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().

 
Page updated 2021-05-12
Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:26:y:2021:i:1:p:594-616