The impact of COVID‐19 on unemployment rate: An intelligent based unemployment rate prediction in selected countries of Europe

Muneeb Ahmad, Yousaf Ali Khan, Chonghui Jiang, Syed Jawad Haider Kazmi and Syed Zaheer Abbas

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2023, vol. 28, issue 1, 528-543

Abstract: Unemployment remains a major cause for both developed and developing nations, due to which they lose their financial and economic impact as a whole. Unemployment rate prediction achieved researcher attention from a fast few years. The intention of doing our research is to examine the impact of the coronavirus on the unemployment rate. Accurately predicting the unemployment rate is a stimulating job for policymakers, which plays an imperative role in a country's financial and financial development planning. Classical time series models such as ARIMA models and advanced non‐linear time series methods be previously hired for unemployment rate prediction. It is known to us that mostly these data sets are non‐linear as well as non‐stationary. Consequently, a random error can be produced by a distinct time series prediction model. Our research considers hybrid prediction approaches supported by linear and non‐linear models to preserve forecast the unemployment rates much precisely. These hybrid approaches of the unemployment rate can advance their estimates by reproducing the unemployment ratio irregularity. These models' appliance is exposed to six unemployment rate statistics sets from Europe's selected countries, specifically France, Spain, Belgium, Turkey, Italy and Germany. Among these hybrid models, the hybrid ARIMA‐ARNN forecasting model performed well for France, Belgium, Turkey and Germany, whereas hybrid ARIMA‐SVM performed outclass for Spain and Italy. Furthermore, these models are used for the best future prediction. Results show that the unemployment rate will be higher in the coming years, which is the consequence of the coronavirus, and it will take at least 5 years to overcome the impact of COVID‐19 in these countries.

Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2434

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:28:y:2023:i:1:p:528-543

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://jws-edcv.wile ... PRINT_ISSN=1076-9307

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Finance & Economics is currently edited by Mark P. Taylor, Keith Cuthbertson and Michael P. Dooley

More articles in International Journal of Finance & Economics from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().